Contrary to expectations, AI hasn't fueled a smartphone supercycle in 2024. While global smartphone shipments are projected to rise by 6.2%, the growth isn't attributed to AI or foldables.
Key Drivers of Growth
- Low-end devices are the primary driver of the 2024 rebound.
- Android shipments are expected to increase by 7.6%, particularly in developing markets.
- iPhone shipments are only projected to grow by 0.4%, indicating no supercycle.
Foldables and AI
Despite the hype, foldables haven't significantly impacted the market. In Q3 2024, foldable phone shipments declined, even with new model releases. Similarly, generative AI hasn't driven early upgrades as anticipated.
Future Outlook
While low-end devices and overdue upgrades are currently boosting the market, IDC predicts AI and foldables will contribute to high-end growth in the coming years. For more insights on budget-friendly options, check out the Samsung Galaxy M16. Those interested in the future of AI might want to read about OLMo 2. For those interested in foldable phones, see Huawei Mate X6.